The electoral math of Maine just became a little tougher for Vice President Kamala Harris as a swing district with precious electoral votes appears to be slipping away.
Maine Democrats on Friday acknowledged that they may not have enough time to change their delegate apportionment rules in the wake of a sly move by Nebraska Republicans to do the same to benefit former President Donald Trump. Each state allots a portion of its delegates based on which presidential candidates wins its respective congressional districts. The admission was made by Democratic House Majority Leader Maureen Terry who on Friday told The Bulwark that it’s “very likely” her party missed the window to make the change. That could greatly narrow Harris’s path to the presidency.
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After previously mothballing a plan to change delegate allotment, Nebraska Republicans in recent weeks ramped up efforts to switch to a strict winner-take-all format after Trump surrogates began pressuring hold-outs to vote for the change. Recent polling in the state’s second district gives Harris a lead between 4 and 5%, according to FiveThirtyEight, though Trump advisors ostensibly believe that his path to carrying the entire state is closer than the polls suggest. The change would irreparably damage Harris’s strategy for winning the election while absorbing losses in all swing states except Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, one that depends on picking up a single Electoral College vote from the Omaha district. If that scenario played out, Harris and Trump could wind up deadlocked 269-269, with the Republican-controlled U.S. House constitutionally authorized to pick the next president.
Back in April, Terry told reporters that Maine Democrats would “be compelled to act in order to restore fairness” if that change in Nebraska were made; unfortunately for her caucus, Maine’s constitution only allows a bill to become law 90 days after it’s passed. The November 5th election is just 47 days away while the deadline for counting votes by the Electoral College is 87 days away. Circumventing the 90-day rule would require a two-thirds vote by the state legislature, which Democrats don’t have the numbers for. “So who knows where that lands us,” Terry told the outlet. “We haven’t had any discussions with any of our Republicans.”
The Trump campaign, sensing an opening, has in recent weeks dispatched U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) to Omaha where he lobbied State Sen. Mike McDonnell, a former Democrat, to side with the majority of party members who want Nebraska to become a winner-take-all state. McDonnell, who represents the battleground district of Omaha, appears to be coming around, according to Graham who said he “saw a shift” in how the state-level lawmaker is thinking about the upcoming vote. “Five people attending the meeting confirmed that McDonnell told the group he was looking for a way to get to yes, though he expressed concerns,” the Nebraska Examiner reported.
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